Population Problems

We are not limited to Earth. The Earth itself is not a closed system, but an open one, constantly being fed energy by the Sun. Were Earth a closed system, the Second Law of Thermodynamics would certainly lead one to the conclusion that any struggle for more than momentary order was in vain. With nine planets, dozens of moons, and untold thousands of planetoids and planetismals, the Solar System has bounty enough for all of humanity. The next several hundred million years seem to be guaranteed a steady supply of energy from the Sun, if our understanding of astrophysics is correct to even two orders of magnitude.

What then, of Malthus and his geometrical versus arithmetical growth rates? The application of technology to the problems of agricultural production and distribution was underdeveloped in 1798. The years since have seen the rise of agricultural automation, genetic engineering, new means for controlling pests and weeds, new means of obtaining usable food stocks from many different plants. The advances in animal husbandry alone have been tremendous. With railroads, automobiles, and aircraft to transport food to consumers, the amount of food which rots in the field or in the warehouse has declined dramatically.

If these technological advances have simply raised the "set point" at which population pressure overwhelms the productive capacity of our agricultural sector, they have certainly bought considerable time to find more lasting solutions. A most interesting phenomenon has been observed in countries with very high standards of living. Birth rates have declined below the replacement level.

This decline in birth rates for the economically well off is not dependent on religious or cultural background. Thus, the raising of global standards of living seems to hold great hope for a reduction in the threat of overpopulation, food riots, famine, and the like. Even in the poorest countries, the difficulty in feeding the population seems to arise more out of political issues, such as ongoing civil wars where there is a strong motivation to let the rebels starve, rather than out of actual food shortages.

Is there a problem with unchecked population growth? Almost certainly. If it is not met by advances in technology, if it is not met with access to a wider array of resources, unchecked population growth will almost certainly result in problems. These may be localized or widespread, depending on the extent of the population growth and the difficulty in meeting it with technological advances in food production and distribution.

If unchecked population growth is problematic, what should "we" do about it? The social Darwinists who latched on to the work of Malthus in the late 19th Century were prepared to undertake all manner of brutality to check that population growth. Their conceptual descendants promulgated such notions as eugenics, Lebensraum, extermination camps, urban renewal, and zero population growth. The resulting rivers of blood and the clouds of smoke from the ovens are emblazoned in the memories of everyone who experienced them. These levels of brutality are by no means a thing of the past, as the rivers continue to run red in Africa where Hutu and Tutsi and other tribal conflicts are expressed in massacres. China continues to imprison its political adversaries, continues to promote a one-child family, and continues to turn a blind eye to the female infanticide their policy promotes. Forced sterilizations in Sweden were allegedly ended in the 1970s; forced abortions in China continue to this day.

Are we then to surrender our freedom over our own bodies, seek licenses to become parents, beg the State for permission to engage in the most intimate acts? If those with a desire for control over centrally planned social order have their way, yes. Will we find in such approaches any sort of solution to our problems? Absolutely not.

The government agency has yet to be created that was willing to eliminate the perceived social ill for which it was founded. A bureau of population control will neither be competent to end the population problem through any level of draconian measures, nor will it be interested in so doing. The bureaucratic imperative is not aligned with finding solutions to problems, but fostering them.

It is in the decline in birth rates with rising standards of living that we may see considerable hope. Unchecked population growth does create problems, but that doesn't excuse mass murder as a means of checking it. Even if it did, the 20th Century is clear evidence that no level of butchery is sufficient to check population growth. The Nazi-Communist solution is neither ethical nor practical.

Advancing technology combined with access to the resources of the Solar System should have a remarkable effect on global standards of living. As we begin to divide a larger and larger pie, the world's carrying capacity increases. More significantly, as more and more people are able to connect into the information revolution, they will each bring enormous opportunities for innovation and improvement of the human condition.

How should we organize the effort to access the resources of the Solar System, settle space, expand our frontiers into the Galaxy, and bring the resources of the universe to bear on the problems of Earth? All evidence has shown conclusively that a centrally planned approach is unworkable. The timeframe for centrally planned efforts must be compact in order to have any hope of success, and the scope of achievement must be limited to simple and easily grasped goals. Opening the Solar System to human settlement is not the work of years, but of decades and centuries. Creating technologies to reduce the cost of space access is not the work for a bureaucracy, but for a market economy.

Thus, the Houston Space Society does not call for a space program, but for space programs. We do not support the existence of any government agency for any purpose, neither research nor development nor regulation. Only by eliminating such agencies and unleashing the power of free enterprise will we be able to meet the challenge of the space frontier.